If not an iron rule of politics—there are exceptions such as President Bush in 2002—typically the party that does not control the White House gains seats in the House of Representatives in off-year elections. With pro-life Republicans currently holding a razor-thin advantage over the pro-abortion Democrat in the House, the Democrats were gleefully looking forward to 2026, at least back in April.
Six months ago, voters gave Democrats an eight point advantage in the generic congressional vote rating which indicates which political party they support. It’s “generic” because the question does not mention specific candidates. That’s the same hefty lead Democrats enjoyed over Republicans in 2017, the off-year election in President Trump’s first term in office, in which the Democrats gained 40 seats.
Buoyed by those numbers, the prediction market Kalshi had the Democrats’ chances of retaking the House at a staggering 83% back in April 2025. But now NBC News found the Democrats’ lead in the generic vote had dropped from 8 points just 3 points.
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“We saw them in an 83% chance, but those odds have gone plummeting down,” CNN chief data analyst Harry Enten said. “We saw them in an 83% chance, but those odds have gone plummeting down. Now, we’re talking about just a 63% chance, while the GOP’s chances — up like a rocket, up like gold, up from 17% to now a 37% chance. So what looked like a pretty clear, likely Democratic win in the House come next year has become much closer to a toss-up at this point, although still slightly leaning Democratic.”
That is independent of what will happen with the impact of mid-decade redistricting in a number of states including heavyweights like Texas and California, from which Republicans are expected to benefit.
One other thing, courtesy of Ingrid Jacques, a columnist for USA Today.
Not only are Democrats unpopular—” earlier this year, the party scored its lowest positive rating – 27% – in the history of NBC News’ poll”– Jacques informs us that “an October CBS News/YouGov poll found 64% of those surveyed use ‘weak’ as the top word to describe Democrats.”
An ”aside” for Jacques is that
the liberals who like to point and laugh at Trump’s approval rating, some perspective is in order. Since the end of July, Trump’s second-term approval is higher than that of former Presidents Barack Obama and George W. Bush at the same time during their second terms.
LifeNews.com Note: Dave Andrusko is the editor of National Right to Life News and an author and editor of several books on abortion topics. He frequently writes Today’s News and Views — an online opinion column on pro-life issues.